Housing market decline continues as Toronto home sales drop 48% from year ago


TORONTO, January 5,2023    

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.  Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) mortgage stress test or other mortgage lending guidelines including amortization periods, home selling prices adjusted downward to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates.
However, home prices started levelling off in the late summer, suggesting the aggressive early market adjustment may be coming to an end.
There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB MLS® System in 2022 down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 3 down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.
While home sales and prices dominated the headlines in 2022, the supply of new listings continued to be an issue as well. The number of homes listed for sale in 2022 was down in comparison to 2021. This helps explain why selling prices have found some support in recent months. Lack of supply has also impacted the rental market. As renting has become more popular in this higher interest rate environment, tighter rental market conditions have translated into double-digit average rent increases.
Toronto region home prices rose 8.6% year over year in 2022 despite months of declining sales and month-over-month price dips. The average selling price for 2022 was $1,189,850 3 up 8.6 per cent compared to $1,095,333 in 2021. This growth was based on a strong start to the year, in terms of year-over-year price growth. The pace of growth moderated from the spring of 2022 onwards.
Looking forward, supply is going to be the major concern, because we’ve heard… from the federal government that we had record immigration into Canada in 2022. The GTA [Greater Toronto Area] will continue to be the single greatest beneficiary of that immigration, and then moving into 2023 and 2024, we’re going to set consecutive record years again.

 

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